Category: predictions

Time for this thing again, where we use a quick-and-dirty formula from a dusty old Bill James Baseball Abstract and compare them to the predictions from Sports Illustrated.

This year, that august publication has predicted the Dodgers defeating the Indians in the World Series. If that works out as well as last year’s prediction, then the Indians will be the 2017 champions, and the Dodgers will not even be the best National League team in the state of California.

In actual news related to the reason this site was created: I can’t predict any baseball-related program activities in 2017, due to my continued unemployment, and Levi’s eternal busy-ness. (I do note that he got a dog last year — something else besides his job that’s keeping him busy — and named it Jenkins. On this blog, we can pretend the pupper is named after Ferguson Jenkins.)

As you may recall, last year Sports Illustrated picked the Cubs to win the National League pennant!…and then lose to the Astros in the World Series. You may notice that the Astros were not even the best American League team in the state of Texas in 2016.

Not that the baseballrelated.com formula did much better, with our prediction of a 3rd-place finish for the Cubs. But it only claims to be the product of me punching numbers into the Calculator app on the ol’ iPhone, rather than being the product of any sort of analysis, or even thought.

Hey, remember how the Sports Illustrated World Series prediction for 2015 was Indians vs. Nationals? And how they had the Red Sox winning the AL East? And the Mariners winning the AL West? Ha ha ha ha (pausing to wipe away tears of derision)!

What’s that? Are you scanning down to see where the baseballrelated.com formula had the Cubs finishing? Hey, look over there — a big distracting thing!

As usual, making use of a quick-and-dirty formula from an old Bill James Baseball Abstract for what I’ve labeled the Baseballrelated.com prediction.

The Sports Illustrated World Series matchup is the Indians vs. Nationals, with Cleveland prevailing. Lotsa luck, Tribe!

I told you that Sports Illustrated’s prediction that the Rays would win the AL East was the kiss of death! Now we have no Hope, no Jobs, and no Maddon — at least we have Cash.

Other obvious disappointments: Red Sox, Rangers, Reds.

The notes about this site at the beginning of the 2013 predictions post are still applicable.

Once again, Sports Illustrated has picked the Rays to win the AL East. Noooo, that’s the kiss of death!

Their World Series matchup is A’s vs. Nationals, with the Nationals winning. I’ll believe it when I see it.

As if you needed another reminder of how surprising the Red Sox’s 2013 season was.

Before I get to the predictions, a few updates and reminders about this site:

• For long-form blogging from Levi, look to I’ve Been Reading Lately, where he expounds about the books he reads.
• Levi also tweets at @levistahl on occasion — and sometimes he even mentions baseball.
• I tweet at @trainman74, more frequently than Levi does — and, again, sometimes I even mention baseball. I’m still unemployed from last year, but unlike last year, I won’t be in Ireland for Opening Day, so I do plan to live-tweet while I watch the games on TV via the MLB Extra Innings free preview. Opening Day being April 1 this year, I might even make up stuff. For example, I might mention that the Dodgers have a $250 million payroll. Ha ha! That’s clearly a ridiculous number.
• As for baseball road trips, which — you may recall from way back when — are really the entire raison d’etre of this site: no plans. My ongoing unemployment makes a road trip pretty much a non-starter this season for financial reasons, and as for the future, Levi and I haven’t discussed anything. For this season, I’m mainly looking forward to the Rays’ August visit to Dodger Stadium (as well as their Angel Stadium visit in September), which I hope I’ll have enough money to attend!
• Now that I visited New Yankee Stadium last June, there are 9 current MLB stadiums that I have not been to. I haven’t been keeping up with the “Jim’s MLB Games” link in the sidebar at left, but I have scanned all my baseball ticket stubs — which includes all but the first two MLB games I attended (in 1983 and 1987), as well as all the minor-league games from 1989 on.

On to the predictions. I want to note for the record that Sports Illustrated picked the Nationals to win the NL pennant, and the Rays to win in the AL. I also want to note that I think the cold equation that creates the baseballrelated.com predictions has the Yankees too high.

And…poor Astros. At least neither we nor Sports Illustrated foresee you outdoing the 1962 Mets (or the 1935 Boston Braves).

Still alive. As usual, to remind you of what happened last year, here are our mathematics-based predictions and Sports Illustrated’s expertise-based predictions compared to the actual results of the 2012 MLB season. Very obvious that the Orioles and the Nationals beat expectations (and the Red Sox did…not). If it’s possible to be proud of my ability to do addition and division on a calculator, then I’m most proud of our correct prediction about the Marlins’ order of finish, compared to Sports Illustrated having bought the hype that, hard as it is to believe now, actually existed around the Marlins at this time last year. 2013 predictions to come later this week, after SI arrives in my mailbox.