Category: predictions

Figuratively peering into the crystal ball.

The predictions in review

The predictions were posted on March 29th, and exactly seven months later, it’s now time to see how everyone did.

Actual results Sports Illustrated Bill James formula Levi’s predictions
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (96-66) 1. N.Y. Yankees 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) 1. Boston Red Sox
2. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) 2. Boston Red Sox 2. Boston Red Sox (89-73) 2. N.Y. Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) 3. Toronto Blue Jays 3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) 4. Baltimore Orioles 4. Baltimore Orioiles (71-91) 4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (66-96) 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (63-99) 5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (96-66) 1. Cleveland Indians 1. Chicago White Sox (93-69) 1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers (88-74) 2. Detroit Tigers 2. Minnesota Twins (92-70) 2. Detroit Tigers
3. Minnesota Twins (79-83) 3. Chicago White Sox 3. Detroit Tigers (87-75) 3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins 4. Cleveland Indians (83-79) 4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals (69-93) 5. Kansas City Royals 5. Kansas City Royals (60-102) 5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (94-68) 1. L.A. Angels 1. L.A. Angels (91-71) 1. L.A. Angels
2. Seattle Mariners (88-74) 2. Oakland Athletics 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71) 2. Oakland Athletics
3. Oakland Athletics (76-86) 3. Texas Rangers 3. Texas Rangers (80-82) 3. Texas Rangers
4. Texas Rangers (75-87) 4. Seattle Mariners 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87) 4. Seattle Mariners
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) 1. N.Y. Mets 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) 1. N.Y. Mets
2. N.Y. Mets (88-74) 2. Atlanta Braves 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)

2. Atlanta Braves
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 3. Philadelphia Phillies 3. Atlanta Braves (83-79) 3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals (73-89) 4. Florida Marlins 4. Florida Marlins (80-82) 4. Florida Marlins
5. Florida Marlins (71-91) 5. Washington Nationals 5. Washington Nationals (74-88) 5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (85-77) 1. St. Louis Cardinals 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) 1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) 2. Chicago Cubs 2. Houston Astros (84-78) 2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84) 3. Milwaukee Brewers 3. Cincinnati Reds (78-84) 3. Chicago Cubs
4. Houston Astros (73-89) 4. Houston Astros 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Cincinnati Reds (72-90) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates 5. Chicago Cubs (70-92) 5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94) 6. Cincinnati Reds 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) 1. L.A. Dodgers 1. San Diego Padres (86-76) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies (90-73) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) 2. L.A. Dodgers
3. San Diego Padres (89-74) 3. San Diego Padres 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86) 3. San Diego Padres
4. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) 4. Colorado Rockies 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86) 4. San Francisco Giants
5. San Francisco Giants (71-91) 5. San Francisco Giants 5. Colorado Rockies (73-89) 5. Colorado Rockies

(Levi’s predictions, made in the comments to the March 29th post, didn’t actually include the Rockies, which I didn’t notice until I was preparing this table. If he wants to lie in the comments to this post and claim he meant to put them in first or second place in the NL West, that’s his prerogative.)

The predictions

Yes, my Sports Illustrated baseball preview issue arrived a week ago, but their predictions were printed on a dark green background in white text that came out a little blurry in my copy. And that’s why it’s taken me so long to post these!

Also, I realize I haven’t yet used Bill James’s quick-and-dirty prediction formula as I’ve done previously.

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66)
2. Boston Red Sox 2. Boston Red Sox (89-73)
3. Toronto Blue Jays 3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)
4. Baltimore Orioles 4. Baltimore Orioles (71-91)
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (63-99)
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians 1. Chicago White Sox (93-69)
2. Detroit Tigers 2. Minnesota Twins (92-70)
3. Chicago White Sox 3. Detroit Tigers (87-75)
4. Minnesota Twins 4. Cleveland Indians (83-79)
5. Kansas City Royals 5. Kansas City Royals (60-102)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels 1. L.A. Angels (91-71)
2. Oakland Athletics 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71)
3. Texas Rangers 3. Texas Rangers (80-82)
4. Seattle Mariners 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70)
2. Atlanta Braves 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)
3. Philadelphia Phillies 3. Atlanta Braves (83-79)
4. Florida Marlins 4. Florida Marlins (80-82)
5. Washington Nationals 5. Washington Nationals (74-88)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
2. Chicago Cubs 2. Houston Astros (84-78)
3. Milwaukee Brewers 3. Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
4. Houston Astros 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates 5. Chicago Cubs (70-92)
6. Cincinnati Reds 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers 1. San Diego Padres (86-76)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. L.A. Dodgers (82-80)
3. San Diego Padres 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86)
4. Colorado Rockies 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86)
5. San Francisco Giants 5. Colorado Rockies (73-89)

The biggest surprise in the Sports Illustrated predictions is the position of the Cubs, but I guess that’s the eternal optimism for you.

Their World Series pick is for a freeway series, Angels over the Dodgers. Incidentally, they’ve changed the parking procedures at Dodger Stadium this year (and raised the parking rate from $10 to $15 in the process), so any late-arriving fans can be ascribed to the parking attendants not knowing what they’re doing, rather than the usual apathy.

My schedule is clear for Monday and MLB Extra Innings will definitely be on DirecTV, if nowhere else, so I’m ready for another year of Opening Day blogging.

(Note primarily to myself for future reference: here’s how I fixed the problem with the

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table.)

Seasonal statistics

As has become baseballrelated.com custom, it’s time to look back at the predictions for the 2006 regular season. This year, not only did we have the Sports Illustrated predictions, but I had also used a simple Bill James formula to make advanced predictions way back on the first day of November 2005.

So…uh, well, nobody foresaw the success of certain AL Central teams, or the non-success of a certain NL East team that’s not in the playoffs for the first time since what seems like when Hank Aaron was on the team.

Nov. 1, 2005 prediction Sports Illustrated Actual result

NL East

Atlanta Braves (90-72) Atlanta Braves New York Mets (97-65)
Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)
Florida Marlins (83-79) Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves (79-83)
New York Mets (80-82) Washington Nationals Florida Marlins (78-84)
Washington Nationals (78-84) Florida Marlins Washington Nationals (71-91)


NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals (97-65) St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals (83-78)
Houston Astros (88-74) Milwaukee Brewers Houston Astros (82-80)
Chicago Cubs (82-80) Houston Astros Cincinnati Reds (80-82)
Milwaukee Brewers (78-84) Chicago Cubs Milwaukee 
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Cincinnati Reds (76-86) Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs (66-96)


NL West

San Diego Padres (83-79) L.A. Dodgers San Diego Padres (88-74)
San Francisco Giants (81-81) San Francisco Giants L.A. Dodgers (88-74)
L.A. Dodgers (79-83) San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants (76-85)
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-90) Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86)
Colorado Rockies (71-91) Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies (76-86)


AL East

New York Yankees (93-69) New York Yankees New York Yankees (97-65)
Boston Red Sox (91-71) Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays (87-75)
Toronto Blue Jays (77-85) Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox (86-76)
Baltimore Orioles (76-86) Tampa Bay Devil Rays Baltimore Orioles (70-92)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (71-91) Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Devil Rays (61-101)


AL Central

Chicago White Sox (90-72) Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins (96-66)
Cleveland Indians (87-75) Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers (95-67)
Minnesota Twins (84-78) Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Detroit Tigers (73-89) Detroit Tigers Cleveland Indians (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (62-100) Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals (62-100)


AL West

L.A. Angels (91-71) Oakland A's Oakland A's (93-69)
Oakland A's (87-75) L.A. Angels L.A. Angels (89-73)
Texas Rangers (82-80) Texas Rangers Texas Rangers (80-82)
Seattle Mariners (70-92) Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners (78-84)

Comparing the teams’ expected numbers of wins to their actual 2006 wins, here are the teams ranked from least to most disappointing (playoff teams in bold):

1. Detroit Tigers +22
2. New York Mets +17
3. Minnesota Twins +12
4. Toronto Blue Jays +10
5. L.A. Dodgers +9
6. Seattle Mariners +8
7. Oakland A’s +6
8. Arizona Diamondbacks +5
8. Colorado Rockies +5
8. San Diego Padres +5
11. Cincinnati Reds +4
11. New York Yankees +4
13. Philadelphia Phillies +1
14. Chicago White Sox EVEN
14. Kansas City Royals EVEN
16. L.A. Angels -2
16. Texas Rangers -2
18. Milwaukee Brewers -3
19. Boston Red Sox -5
19. Florida Marlins -5
19. Pittsburgh Pirates -5
19. San Francisco Giants -5
23. Baltimore Orioles -6
23. Houston Astros -6
25. Washington Nationals -7
26. Cleveland Indians -9
27. Tampa Bay Devil Rays -10
28. Atlanta Braves -11
29. St. Louis Cardinals -14
30. Chicago Cubs -16

Cardinals: ouch!

"He’s sittin’ on 714"

I’m not sure if “honor” is the right word, but in honor of Barry Bonds’ current home run total, here’s Milo Hamilton’s call of Hank Aaron’s 715th home run on April 8, 1974, while both members of baseballrelated.com were ensconced in wombs.

Meanwhile, Albert Pujols is on the cover of Sports Illustrated again, for the second time in less than two months, and why not? Also in the issue is Baseball Prospectus’s projected home run leader board from the year 2020, which I want to reproduce here for posterity:

1. Barry Bonds (765)
2. Hank Aaron (755)
3. Babe Ruth (714)
4. Alex Rodriguez (678)
5. Willie Mays (660)
6. Adam Dunn (638)
7. Ken Griffey Jr. (637)
8. Albert Pujols (620)
9. Manny Ramirez (589)
10. Sammy Sosa (588)
11. Robotic Hitting Unit HR-1 (587)
12. Frank Robinson (586)

One of the above was actually my own addition to the Baseball Prospectus list, solely to make Levi chuckle.

If it’s the last Thursday in March…

In Levi’s honor, Albert Pujols is on the cover of the Sports Illustrated baseball preview issue this year. And once again, here are their predictions, posted here so we can refer to them during the season and laugh at them in October.

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers
2. S.F. Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals

AL West
1. Oakland A’s
2. L.A. Angels
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

The two wild-card teams, they believe, will be the Angels and the Mets. White Sox vs. A’s in the ALCS, Cardinals vs. Braves in the NLCS, and White Sox over the Cardinals.

Spring is here, I hear

The Vernal Equinox has passed. It’s time for predictions.

Some ground rules:
1) Pick the Braves to win. Seriously. Just give up not doing so. I hate this rule, but if I’d followed it even once since 1991, I’d have picked better.

2) Pick the Royals for last.

3) If you’re really inspired, list the order of finish for each division in each league. If you’re lazy, pick each division winner and the wild card for each league.

4) Pick the MVP and Cy Young. Don’t pick Rookie of the Year, unless you pay more attention to the minor leagues than I do.

5) As you do your calculations, remember that Operation Shutdown is, so far as I know, still in effect. The Pirates will not have the use of the services of Derek Bell.

Play Ball, boys!*

*and girls. Girls are encouraged to post. Got lots of female friends who are rabid fans, don’t want to slight ’em.

Play ball, robots!

The magic robots over at Diamond Mind have released their annual player projections disc, in advance of their 2006 version of their game. Over at the Baseball Primer, a guy named SG ran 100 seasons with their projections, which Diamond Mind tends to do itself at some preseason point. The average number of wins they come up with over 100 seasons tends to be a reasonably good predictor of the actual season.

SG’s top teams?
AL East: Toronto, with 86 wins, tops the Yanks by 1
AL Central: Cleveland takes it with 92
AL West: Oakland with 96, the best total in baseball
NL East: Mets. Really. The Mets, with 93
NL Central: The Cardinals, falling a bit to only 94 wins.
NL West: Padres, climbing to 85 wins

The Cardinals make the playoffs 80 out of 100 seasons, either via a title or the Wild Card. Cubs win 85 and make the playoffs 38 times. Dodgers come in at 83 wins and 30 playoff appearances. Special to Toby: Pittsburgh averages 82 wins and makes 20 playoff appearances!!!

Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Florida

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are the only three teams never to make the playoffs. But I suppose their fans didn’t need magic robots to tell them that, did they?

You can see SG’s table here, scrolling down to comment #76.
Oh, this means the season’s getting close. Time to hie myself to my local bookstore and order Baseball Prospectus 2006.

No need to play the games

Now we can get back to Bill James. Using a quick little formula provided in the 1986 edition of the Baseball Abstract, here are the early predictions for 2006:

AL East

N.Y. Yankees (93-69)
Boston Red Sox (91-71)
Toronto Blue Jays (77-85)
Baltimore Orioles (76-86)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (71-91)

AL Central

Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Cleveland Indians (87-75)
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Detroit Tigers (73-89)
Kansas City Royals (62-100)

AL West

L.A. Angels (91-71)
Oakland A’s (87-75)
Texas Rangers (82-80)
Seattle Mariners (70-92)

NL East

Atlanta Braves (90-72)
Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)
Florida Marlins (83-79)
N.Y. Mets (80-82)
Washington Nationals (78-84)

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
Houston Astros (88-74)
Chicago Cubs (82-80)
Milwaukee Brewers (78-84)
Cincinnati Reds (76-86)
Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)

NL West

San Diego Padres (83-79)
San Francisco Giants (81-81)
L.A. Dodgers (79-83)
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-90)
Colorado Rockies (71-91)

Standings in the place where you live

That’s right, it’s time once again to compare the Sports Illustrated predictions with what really happened in 2005. Oh, and I might as well throw in Bob’s picks, while I’m at it, and I hope I’ve managed to correctly decipher all the cute names he used for the teams…

SI Prediction             Bob's Prediction            Actual Results

                                 NL East

Atlanta Braves            N.Y. Mets                   Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins           Atlanta Braves              Philadelphia Phillies
N.Y. Mets                 Philadelphia Phillies       Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies     Florida Marlins             N.Y. Mets
Washington Nationals      Washington Nationals        Washington Nationals

                                NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals       St. Louis Cardinals         St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs              Chicago Cubs                Houston Astros
Houston Astros            Milwaukee Brewers           Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds           Cincinnati Reds             Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers         Pittsburgh Pirates          Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates        Houston Astros              Pittsburgh Pirates

                                 NL West

San Francisco Giants      San Diego Padres            San Diego Padres
L.A. Dodgers              Colorado Rockies            Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres          L.A. Dodgers                San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks      San Francisco Giants        L.A. Dodgers
Colorado Rockies          Arizona Diamondbacks        Colorado Rockies

                                 AL East

New York Yankees          New York Yankees            New York Yankees*
Boston Red Sox            Boston Red Sox              Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles         Toronto Blue Jays           Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays         Baltimore Orioles           Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays      Tampa Bay Devil Rays        Tampa Bay Devil Rays

                                AL Central

Minnesota Twins           Detroit Tigers               Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians         Minnesota Twins              Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox         Chicago White Sox            Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers            Cleveland Indians            Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals        Kansas City Royals           Kansas City Royals

                                 AL West

L.A. Angels               Oakland A's                  L.A. Angels
Texas Rangers             L.A. Angels                  Oakland A's
Oakland A's               Seattle Mariners             Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners          Texas Rangers                Seattle Mariners

*-The Yankees and Red Sox both finished with the same record (95-67),
and the MLB standings I'm looking at have the Red Sox on top for what
I believe are reasons relating to alphabetical order.  But it seems weird
to me to have the division champion listed under the wild-card team.

Sports Illustrated was better with their predictions than they were last year, but here’s a special salute to Bob for predicting the correct division champion in the NL West (and they managed to finish with a winning record, too!).

One thing I noticed while perusing the final standings: the Cardinals had the same record at home and on the road (50-31). I believe earlier in the season, I made a tongue-in-cheek comment in this blog that the Cardinals were “boring.” Clearly, the word I meant was “consistent.”

It’s that time.

Prediction time. Everyone should make picks in the comments. And remember: pick the Braves. It’s evil, but it’s better to hate them now than to hate them later.

AL East: Boring

Red Sox
Yankees
Some other teams

AL Central: Not that good
Twins
Indians
Sox
Tigers
Royals

AL West: Where the action is
Anaheim
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

NL East: Dan’s division
Atlanta (Sorry, Dan.)
Philly (Sorry, Dan.)
Florida (Sorry, Dan.)
New York
Montreal

NL Central: The one you’ve all been waiting for
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Cincinnatti
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee

NL West: No Barry, no excitement
LA
San Diego
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado

Tom Tippett over at Diamond Mind has done his usual 100-season simulation, and he has the Cardinals winning an average of 103 games and taking the division title 99 times. While I do think this is the strongest Cardinals team I’ve ever seen going into the season, I’m not quite as confident as that. Diamond Mind, for example, while taking account of injuries, assigns them more or less randomly, from what I can tell from Tippett’s explanation. The Cardinals are relying on a couple of old guys who are very, very good, which means there’s a chance that those guys will be very, very hurt.

But the only real competition, the Cubs, are relying on a rotation that has its own durability questions, a bench and bullpen that have chances to be catastrophically awful, and on an offense that has done nothing to change its habit of making a lot of outs.

So despite October’s Washington Generals impersonation, I’m with my guys again. I know October 2005 is a long, long way away, but here’s to back-to-back pennants.

And you folks?

Original comments:

Anonymous: How come you switched in the middle of the list from team names to city names?

Levi: No excuse: I was in a hurry this morning and edited poorly. That also explains why I have no links in the post.

thatbob: Baseball Related comes with a free predictions archive this year? Kewl! Introducing my first-ever sports predictions of any kind in any sport, informed by 2 days of game play, but still relying mostly on how much I like the teams.

ALE:
Sux
Sox
Js
Oos
Pansies the Wuss-Wusses

ALC:
Tuffies
Tweens
Sox
Racists
Caseys

ALW:
Proppas
LAAOAs
Microsofts
Dubyas

NLE:
Dans
Racists
Phans
Fish
Senators

NLC:
Cards
Cubs
Beers
Reds
Arrs
Orbities

NLW:
Dads
Rocks
Trolleys
Gnats
Snakes