The 2010 predictions

Hey, the baseball season starts tomorrow! Here are the 2010 predictions from both Sports Illustrated and a quick-and-dirty Bill James formula [(2009 wins*2)+(2008 wins)/3].

Sports Illustrated picked one Player To Watch for each team, so I’ve done the same. However, instead of actual analysis of each player’s strengths and what they bring to their teams, it’s mostly just making fun of their names.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com
Prediction Player to Watch Prediction Player to Watch
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (100-62) Javier Vazquez (RHP) 1. N.Y. Yankees (98-64) Derek Jeter (SS), who I’m expecting to find himself distracted by his gigantic house in my old neck of the woods in Tampa. A lot of things can go wrong with a house that size, beginning with satellites crashing into it, having been attracted by its gravitational pull.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (95-67) Jeff Niemann (RHP) 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) Kevin Youkilis (1B), because I like saying “Yooooook.”
3. Boston Red Sox (93-69) Mike Cameron (CF) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (88-74) Pansy the Wuss-Wuss Fish Who Can’t Keep It Up (mascot), for what should be obvious reasons.
4. Baltimore Orioles (76-86) Nick Markakis (RF) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) Marc Rzepczynski (LHP) — want to find out how to pronounce that.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (64-98) Ricky Romero (LHP) 5. Baltimore Orioles (65-97) Cesar Izturis (SS) — enjoy his salad, like him on “The Dog Whisperer.”
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (88-74) Orlando Hudson (2B) 1. Minnesota Twins (87-75) The Minnesota Weather (environment) now that the Twins are in an outdoor stadium.
2. Detroit Tigers (82-80) Johnny Damon (LF) 2. Chicago White Sox (82-80) Gordon Beckham (2B) — we know he can play soccer, but what about baseball?
3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) Jake Peavy (RHP) 3. Detroit Tigers (82-80) Johnny Damon (LF), of course, of course.
4. Cleveland Indians (66-96) Fausto Carmona (RHP) 4. Cleveland Indians (70-92) Fausto Carmona (RHP), who has obviously sold his soul to the devil in order to beat the Yankees, who are unfortunately in a different division.
5. Kansas City Royals (65-97) Zack Greinke (RHP) 5. Kansas City Royals (68-94) Zack Greinke (RHP) — surely some Kansas City-based agribusiness research facility is working on cloning technology as we speak that would allow the Royals to have a rotation of five Greinkes.
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (89-73) Ervin Santana (RHP) 1. L.A. Angels (98-64) Jered Weaver (RHP) — I have a co-worker named Jarad who is originally from the greater Anaheim area. What is it with Orange County and weird spellings of “Jared”?
2. Texas Rangers (87-75) Josh Hamilton (RF) 2. Texas Rangers (84-78) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C) — always fun to see how they manage to cram his name onto the back of his jersey.
3. Seattle Mariners (83-79) Milton Bradley (LF) 3. Seattle Mariners (77-85) David Aardsma (RHP) — first in war, first in peace, first in alphabetical order.
4. Oakland Athletics (79-83) Ben Sheets (RHP) 4. Oakland Athletics (75-87) Coco Crisp (CF), who always makes me hungry for cereal.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (100-62) Cole Hamels (LHP) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) Placido Polanco (3B), who should be singing the National Anthem before every game — or am I thinking of Enrico Palazzo?
2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) Billy Wagner (LHP) 2. Florida Marlins (86-76) John Baker (C) — okay, that’s how he registers at hotels, but what’s his real name?
3. Florida Marlins (82-80) Ricky Nolasco (RHP) 3. Atlanta Braves (81-81) Jair Jurrjens (RHP) — hopefully he’s less annoying on the Braves than he was in The Phantom Menace.
4. N.Y. Mets (79-83) Daniel Murphy (1B) 4. N.Y. Mets (76-86) Angel Pagan (OF) — most oxymoronic name in baseball.
5. Washington Nationals (67-95) Nyjer Morgan (CF) 5. Washington Nationals (59-103) Nyjer Morgan (CF) — great XTC song: “Making Plans for Nyjer.”
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) Colby Rasmus (CF) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) Albert Pujols (1B) — how can you not watch Albert Pujols?
2. Chicago Cubs (81-81) Geovany Soto (C) 2. Chicago Cubs (88-74) Carlos Zambrano (RHP) — because I still can’t remember which one is Carlos and which one is Victor.
3. Cincinnati Reds (79-83) Homer Bailey (RHP) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) Trevor Hoffman (RHP) — has anyone yet done a polka version of “Hell’s Bells” in his honor?
4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) Alcides Escobar (SS) 4. Houston Astros (78-84) Roy Oswalt (RHP) — his brother Patton is very, very funny.
5. Houston Astros (69-93) Brett Myers (RHP) 5. Cincinnati Reds (77-85) Homer Bailey (RHP) — with a name like Homer, how did he end up as a pitcher and not a hitter?
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97) Andrew McCutchen (CF) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) The Primanti Sandwich (concession) — sadly, again this year, probably going to be the best thing that makes its home in PNC Park.
NL West
1. Colorado Rockies (91-71) Todd Helton (1B) 1. L.A. Dodgers (91-71) Manny Ramirez (LF) — because no doubt he’s going to make something interesting happen.
2. L.A. Dodgers (87-75) Chad Billingsley (RHP) 2. Colorado Rockies (86-76) Huston Street (RHP) — waiting to see if he gets a street named after him, and if it’ll be handled the same way it was handled when Eugenius H. Outerbridge had a bridge named after him. (Actually, there already is a “Street Road” in the Philadelphia area. Maybe he should go to the Phillies.)
3. San Francisco Giants (83-79) Brian Wilson (RHP) 3. San Francisco Giants (83-79) Barry Zito (LHP), who wears his pants cuffs high and will therefore be showing off the Giants’ awesome new striped socks.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80) Mark Reynolds (3B) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88) Augie Ojeda (IF) — I always wonder if his father’s name is Ojeda Daddy.
5. San Diego Padres (66-96) Kyle Blanks (LF) 5. San Diego Padres (71-91) Will Venable (RF) — waiting for him to be around long enough that he becomes Will Venerable.

The 2009 predictions in review

For those of you just tuning in, for the past couple of years, I’ve been comparing Sports Illustrated’s baseball preview issue’s predictions for the upcoming season with the predictions generated by a quick-and-dirty formula from an old Bill James Baseball Abstract that only takes previous season win totals into effect. Here’s what happened with last year’s predictions (spoiler alert: poor Mets!).

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula Actual results
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65) 1. Boston Red Sox (95-67) 1. N.Y. Yankees (103-59)
2. Boston Red Sox (96-66) 2. N.Y. Yankees (91-71) 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (87-69) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
4. Baltimore Orioles (80-82) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-94) 5. Baltimore Orioles (64-98)
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (85-77) 1. Cleveland Indians (86-76) 1. Minnesota Twins (87-76)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 2. Minnesota Twins (85-77) 2. Detroit Tigers (86-77)
3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) 3. Chicago White Sox (83-79) 3. Chicago White Sox (79-83)
4. Detroit Tigers (77-85) 4. Detroit Tigers (79-83) 4. Cleveland Indians (65-97)
5. Kansas City Royals (74-88) 5. Kansas City Royals (73-89) 5. Kansas City Royals (65-97)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (86-76) 1. L.A. Angels (98-64) 1. L.A. Angels (97-65)
2. Oakland Athletics (81-81) 2. Texas Rangers (78-84) 2. Texas Rangers (87-75)
3. Texas Rangers (73-89) 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) 3. Seattle Mariners (85-77)
4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) 4. Seattle Mariners (70-92) 4. Oakland Athletics (75-87)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (91-71) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73) 2. Florida Marlins (87-75)
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 3. Florida Marlins (80-82) 3. Atlanta Braves (86-76)
4. Florida Marlins (77-85) 4. Atlanta Braves (76-86) 4. N.Y. Mets (70-92)
5. Washington Nationals (70-92) 5. Washington Nationals (64-98) 5. Washington Nationals (59-103)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74) 2. Chicago Cubs (83-78)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80) 3. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
4. Cincinnati Reds (80-82) 4. Houston Astros (82-80) 4. Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
5. Houston Astros (70-92) 5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) 5. Houston Astros (74-88)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-99)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (88-74) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) 1. L.A. Dodgers (95-67)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75) 2. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) 2. Colorado Rockies (92-70)
3. San Francisco Giants (77-85) 3. Colorado Rockies (79-83) 3. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
4. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90) 4. San Diego Padres (75-87)
5. San Diego Padres (69-93) 5. San Diego Padres (72-90) 5. Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92)

2010 predictions will be posted within a couple of days (spoiler alert: Sports Illustrated has finally learned their lesson about picking the Mets to finish first).

This blog has moved, and yet, it hasn’t

Because Blogger is soon dropping support for publishing blogs via FTP — which is what we’d been doing this whole time — I switched to WordPress.  It was a ridiculous process that involved temporarily moving the blog to a blogspot.com address, then back to baseballrelated.com after WordPress had been freshly installed.  I fear some comments didn’t get successfully transferred over, and I had to manually change all of Levi’s posts to show him as author.

There was also an automatically-generated Blogger message that “this blog has moved.”  Ignore whatever it said the new feed was; this is the correct location.  (Also, if you actually go to baseballrelated.com, you’ll see that it’s currently using the default WordPress theme, and you can’t get to any of our ancillary content, such as the pages about the 2004 trip.  That’ll change as soon as I have a chance to work on it.)

I can’t speak for Levi, but I do intend to attempt to post more often during the 2010 baseball season than in the past couple of seasons.

Recent baseball dreams

The following are all baseball-related dreams I’ve had in the past month. Seriously: the past month–a month in which there has been no baseball.

1 The Cardinals won the 2009 World Series. For some reason, I watched it all at Chuck E. Cheese. When I woke up, I was really happy for nearly a minute before realizing it was a dream; at that point, I began to ponder whether a world championship would really be worth sitting in Chuck E. Cheese for upwards of 20 hours.

2 I was watching the 1982 World Series. In the top of the first inning, Andy Van Slyke–who, my waking self knows, was not on that team–hit a double. He had long braids dangling beyond the back of his helmet, like many a football lineman. In the bottom of the first inning, the first two Brewers made outs, and then their third hitter came to the plate . . . and he was Darth Vader. Vader’s a lefty, and–I hate to say this about one of the universe’s greatest villains, but he’s got a sweet stroke. He hit a double, and as he slid into second, his cape flew behind him beautifully.

3 The Cardinals were having trouble re-signing Jason LaRue. This was one of those dreams that you forget about until reality reminds you: I read an article the next day about the Cards re-signing LaRue, and for a moment I was perplexed. Then the wisps of dream came back to me–and made me feel like the lamest person in the universe. I mean, the dude’s facial hair and hygiene are nothing less than wonders of the universe, but what it boils down to is the sad fact that I had a dream about the contract status of a backup catcher. I swear my life is better and more fulfilling than that fact would make you think.

And this is all without even getting into the dream I had about Vinegar Joe Lieberman Sunday night!

Ichiro!

{Photo of an Ichiro mouse on a kleenex box in Japan taken by rocketlass.} From a New York Times article about Ichiro’s nine straight 200-hit seasons comes this quote:

“Chicks who dig home runs aren’t the ones who appeal to me,” he said. “I think there’s sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I’d rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Then, every now and then, just to show I can do that, too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out.”

Two questions: 1. How can anyone not love Ichiro? 2. What on

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earth must it be like to be his translator?

One would expect the Cardinals, Orioles, or Blue Jays to tweet, but…

Joe Maddon is apparently the only MLB manager on Twitter, as @RaysJoeMaddon. His tweets can be a bit obtuse and incoherent…kind of like the Rays’ offensive strategies. Ha ha!

And here’s a sentence I never, ever thought I’d use: I learned about this from Alyssa Milano.

Both L.A. teams in one day

Longtime fans of Baseball-Related Program Activities may remember that, on August 30, 2004, Levi and I went to two baseball games in two cities in one day: White Sox vs. Phillies in Chicago, and then Brewers vs. Pirates in Milwaukee.

We finally had a chance to recreate that experience. Levi came to Los Angeles for business, and both the Dodgers and Angels were at home, and on May 9, the Dodgers were scheduled for an afternoon game, with the Angels playing at night.

The only thing that put a damper on the experience was Manny Ramirez being suspended for 50 games just three days before we were going to see him.

What Levi, I, and hanger-on Jason did end up seeing was the Dodgers defeating the Giants 8-0, followed by the Angels over the Royals, 1-0. Yes,

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we saw no visiting team runs. We also saw complete games by three pitchers — Eric Stults of the Dodgers, Joe Saunders of the Angels, and Zack Greinke of the Royals. Greinke entered the game with a 0.40 ERA, which meant that his ERA went up after pitching a 1-run complete game, which is almost as rare of an event as the Dodgers and Angels both playing at home the same weekend. The Angels game finished in 2:07 — not quite as short as the 1:56 Indians-White Sox game on our road trip, but impressive nonetheless.

(Special shout-outs to Maggie, Kimiko, and Kate for being hangers-on for the first game.)

There have already been plenty of Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium pictures on this blog over the years, so all you get here is a picture of Greinke looking intense during his warmup:

The 2009 predictions

And without further adieu…

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65) 1. Boston Red Sox (95-67)
2. Boston Red Sox (96-66) 2. N.Y. Yankees (91-71)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (87-69)
4. Baltimore Orioles (80-82) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-93)
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (85-77) 1. Cleveland Indians (86-76)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 2. Minnesota Twins (85-77)
3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) 3. Chicago White Sox (83-79)
4. Detroit Tigers (77-85) 4. Detroit Tigers (79-83)
5. Kansas City Royals (74-88) 5. Kansas City Royals (73-89)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (86-76) 1. L.A. Angels (98-64)
2. Oakland Athletics (81-81) 2. Texas Rangers (78-84)
3. Texas Rangers (73-89) 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87)
4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) 4. Seattle Mariners (70-92)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (91-71)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73)
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 3. Florida Marlins (80-82)
4. Florida Marlins (77-85) 4. Atlanta Braves (76-86)
5. Washington Nationals (70-92) 5. Washington Nationals (64-98)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80) 3. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
4. Cincinnati Reds (80-82) 4. Houston Astros (82-80)
5. Houston Astros (70-92) 5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (88-74) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75) 2. L.A. Dodgers (83-79)
3. San Francisco Giants (77-85) 3. Colorado Rockies (79-83)
4. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90)
5. San Diego Padres (69-93) 5. San Diego Padres (72-90)

Looking forward to another baseball season!