The baseball singularity is here

Ray Kurzweil, in his recent book The Singularity is Near writes about the moment, which he sees just over the horizon, when machines will surpass human abilities and be actual thinking machines (Bob, please help me out with the explanation in comments if I’ve gotten this wrong.).

Well, in baseball terms, the moment of machine superiority may already be here. At a Marlins exhibition game yesterday, the star wasn’t any of the Marlins’ suspect prospects.

It was a pitching machine. That recorded five strikeouts.

Which lead me to think about how a pitching machine should be programmed to pitch to Old Sammy Sosa, pre-batting eye (or New New Sammy, post-batting eye): “Pitch 1: low and away slider. Pitch two:

low and away slider. Pitch 3: low and away slider. Strikeout!”

Corey Patterson, on the other hand: “Pitch one: throw ball into stands. Pitch two: throw ball into dugout. Pitch threee: roll ball to plate. Strikeout!”
And I think even a robot would take Lefty Gomez’s advice about pitching to Stan Musial: “Make your best pitch and back up third base. That relay might get away and you’ve got another shot at him.”

Opening Day can’t come too soon, if I’m talking about baseball robots.

Negative connotations

Baseball

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blogger Deadspin is giving a goofy preseason look at each team.
One of his points about Jim’s favorite team, the Devil Rays?

“The team is considering changing its name from the ‘Devil Rays,’ saying ‘Devil’ has a negative connotation. Well, only when ‘Rays’ is added.

Daryl Kile

From a Post-Dispatch article on Daryl Kile‘s

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abiding influence:

“Every once in a while — not very often — you come across people who make everybody else around them better,” Matheny said. “I’ve never seen anybody put so much effort into other people and you could tell it was sincere.”

Play ball, robots!

The magic robots over at Diamond Mind have released their annual player projections disc, in advance of their 2006 version of their game. Over at the Baseball Primer, a guy named SG ran 100 seasons with their projections, which Diamond Mind tends to do itself at some preseason point. The average number of wins they come up with over 100 seasons tends to be a reasonably good predictor of the actual season.

SG’s top teams?
AL East: Toronto, with 86 wins, tops the Yanks by 1
AL Central: Cleveland takes it with 92
AL West: Oakland with 96, the best total in baseball
NL East: Mets. Really. The Mets, with 93
NL Central: The Cardinals, falling a bit to only 94 wins.
NL West: Padres, climbing to 85 wins

The Cardinals make the playoffs 80 out of 100 seasons, either via a title or the Wild Card. Cubs win 85 and make the playoffs 38 times. Dodgers come in at 83 wins and 30 playoff appearances. Special to Toby: Pittsburgh averages 82 wins and makes 20 playoff appearances!!!

Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Florida

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are the only three teams never to make the playoffs. But I suppose their fans didn’t need magic robots to tell them that, did they?

You can see SG’s table here, scrolling down to comment #76.
Oh, this means the season’s getting close. Time to hie myself to my local bookstore and order Baseball Prospectus 2006.

The Hall of Fame

Bruce Sutter: very good pitcher
Goose Gossage: much better pitcher

And his nickname is Goose. The man belongs in the Hall of Fame.

I was going to write all about this, with stats and arguments and stuff, but The Pinstriped Bible has already done so, far better than I would have.

For those of you too busy to click through the link, I call out a single sentence, which, in itself, says a lot about Gossage and about the usage of relievers before the days of hyperspecialization:

“Twice during the 1978 season, Yankees managers called on Gossage in the second inning and let him finish the game.”

Note that this post says nothing about the two best eligible players not currently in the Hall: Ron Santo and Bert Blyleven. May the Veteran’s Committee someday do the right thing and put them in.

Credit him with a hold . . . up

I thought at first this was a weird and funny story. But then I realized it’s a weird and sad story.

Former holder of the all-time saves record (for about 45 minutes before the next generation blew past him) Jeff Reardon was arrested for robbing a jewelry store in Florida last week. According to the article, Reardon apologized and blamed medication he’s been taking; his son committed suicide last year and he’s suffered from depression since.

Here’s wishing him a turnaround in his fortunes. He was a fun pitcher to watch, he manhandled the Cardinals in the 1987 World Series (4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 K), and he had a fantastic beard. I hope things go better for him from here.

Jacque!

Cardinals fans have spent the past couple of weeks worrying that the Cardinals might, as rumor had it, sign Jacque Jones from the Twins. Jacque Jones is not a very good baseball player, and he was destined to be overpaid.

So the Cubs signed him! For three years! For

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$16 million!

Dan Szymborski of Baseballprimer.com has a hilarious analysis of the signing at their Transaction Oracle. I can’t figure out how to permalink to the post, so you should go here, then scroll down just a bit until you find the Jones signing. It’s worth it.

Thanks, Matt

Matt Morris has reportedly signed a 3-year, $27-million deal with the Giants, reuniting him with his favorite backstop, Mike Matheny, and ending a nine-year career as a Cardinal.

Matt’s been one of my favorite baseball players since his rookie season in 1997, when he went 12-9 with an ERA of 3.19. I learned that season that Matt sometimes rode

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his bicycle to the park on days he wasn’t pitching, and that was all I needed. He was always fun to watch pitch. He comes across as one of those guys who manages to be ultra-competetive without being a prick. His Cardinal career also coincides exactly with the period of my most intense baseball fandom: post-college, with more time on my hands and the Internet to keep me close to my team. He’ll always be one of the faces of that era of baseball to me.

His best moments in a Cardinals uniform, though, came in one week in October of 2001. Twice in six days, he dueled Curt Schilling and the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The Cards came out on the wrong side both times, as Morris lost the first game 1-0 and took a no-decision after 8 1-run innings in a 2-1 loss in the deciding game five. It was tough, stressful baseball, the kind that makes us ordinary people wonder how anyone can block out the drama long enough to actually participate in it. Up against Schilling at

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his world-beating best, Matt Morris threw a couple of the best games of his life.

He ends his Cardinal career having started the tenth-most games in team history, 209. with a 101-62 record, a 3.61 ERA, and an ERA+ of 119*. He’s fourth in team history in strikeouts, with 1337, and sixth in winning percentage at .620. Oh, and he’s sixth in hit batsmen with 49.

Thanks, Matt. Good luck in San Francisco. I think you’ll like the city and that big ballpark.

*ERA+ is a complex stat designed to show how a pitcher performed relative to other pitchers in the league that year. 100 is average, anything over that is good. Matt’s best was a 166 in his injury-shortened 1998. Last year, an off year for him, he still managed a 104.

Wow . . . and wow.

First, and the Washington Post reports that in a Japanese poll in which respondents were asked to list their ideal bosses, healing Bobby Valentine made the top ten–the only foreigner.

Second, an article on the AP wire reports that Raul Mondesi–you know, the guy who was more or less run out of Major League Baseball for being a party machine rather than an outfielder–is running for mayor of his hometown, San Cristobal, in the Dominican Republic.